Using prior estimate for social cost of carbon, we can calculate externalized cost of all carbon emitted in the USA.
I calculate it as between $234B/year and $1,254B/year. This equates to 1.4% to 7.4% of GDP, $0.7k to $4.0k/person/year, or $2.0k to $10.6k/household/year. This social cost accounts not only for greenhouse gasses, but also premature deaths from pollution, etc. My layman’s interpretation of social cost is that if properly priced in, it fully accounts for a carbon neutral society.
Currently, this cost is externalized. If internalized, free markets would sort it out. This sorting out would almost certainly find major points of efficiency along the way leaving the final cost less than these figures.
***See calculations below
1. Assume all emitted carbon comes from oil, coal, and natural gas consumption. We can find the amount consumed here.
Oil consumed in USA = 6.88E9 bbl/year (1 bbl = 1 oil barrel)
Coal consumed in USA = 891E6 sh tn/yr (short tons/year) = 1.782E12 pounds (1 short ton = 2000 pounds)
Natural gas consumed in USA = 25.5E12 cubic feet/yr = 0.260E12 therms/year (0.010196 therms/cubic foot)
2. Find how much CO2 that one unit of above energy sources produces when combusted using this reference.
Oil = 0.43 metric tons CO2/barrel
Coal = 9.31E-4 metric tons CO2/pound of coal
Natural gas = 0.005302 metric tons CO2/therm
3. Calculate CO2 produced for all the energy sources
Oil = 0.43 * 6.88E9 = 2.96E9 metric tons CO2/year
Coal = 1.782E12 * 9.31E-4 = 1.66E9 metric tons CO2/year
Natural gas = 0.26E12 * 0.005302 = 1.38E9 metric tons CO2/year
Total = 2.96E9 + 1.66E9 + 1.38E9 = 6.0E9 metric tons CO2/year from all nonrenewables
4. Calculate social cost of carbon of this emitted carbon
Social cost is bounded by $39/metric ton and $209/metric ton
Social cost (low) = $39 * 6.0E9 = $234B/year
Social cost (high) = $209 * 6.0E9 = $1,254B/year
5. Calculate cost per person
USA population = 314M
Cost per person (low) = $234/0.314 = $745/person/year
Cost per person (high) = $1,254/0.314 = $3,994/person/year
6. Calculate cost per household
USA households = 118M
Cost per household (low) = $234/0.118 = $1,983/household/year
Cost per household (high) = 1254/0.118 = $10,627/household/year
7. Calculate cost relative to GDP
USA GDP = $17E12
Percentage of GDP (low) = 0.234/17 = 1.4%
Percentage of GDP (high) = 1.254/17 = 7.4%